Author Archives: Steve Miller

Foreign Policy Research & Analysis, National Security, Terrorism Information

What actions have been taken so far as a result of the new American anti-terrorism law enacted in December 2015?

The primary thrust of this new law is to mitigate the risk of someone either living in the U.S., or travels there frequently, to become radicalized with terrorist ideals and training while outside the U.S., then comes home to launch a terrorist attack. This law reflects the San Bernardino, CA attack last year, whereby, an Islamic husband and wife (a U.S. citizen and a Foreign National spouse who entered the U.S. legally) traveled outside the U.S., received radicalization training, then returned home and committed a terrorist act.

On January 21st, the first set of revised immigration rules stemming from the new law, were activated. The new rules are as follows:

• Visa Waiver Program. U.S. immigration rules already in effect, provide a special arrangement – called the Visa Waiver Program – which authorizes passport holders from any of the following countries to enter the U.S. for up to 90 days without an entry visa.

VISA WAIVER PROGRAM COUNTRIES

• Andorra

• Australia

• Austria

• Belgium

• Brunei

• Chile

• Czech Republic

• Denmark

• Estonia

• Finland

• France

• Germany

• Greece

• Hungary

• Iceland

• Ireland

• Italy

• Japan

• Latvia

• Liechtenstein

• Lithuania

• Luxembourg

• Monaco

• Netherlands

• New Zealand

• Norway

• Portugal

• Republic of Malta

• San Marino

• Singapore

• Slovakia

• Slovenia

• South Korea

• Spain

• Sweden

• Switzerland

• Taiwan

• United Kingdom

The new immigration rules under the Act specify that travelers in the following categories are no longer eligible to travel or be admitted to the United States under the Visa Waiver Program (VWP):

– Nationals of VWP countries who have traveled to or been present in Iran, Iraq, Sudan, or Syria on or after March 1, 2011 (with limited exceptions for travel for diplomatic or military purposes in the service of a VWP country).

– Nationals of VWP countries who are also nationals of Iran, Iraq, Sudan, or Syria.

These individuals will still be able to apply for a visa using the regular immigration process at U.S. embassies or consulates. Prior to January 21st, citizens of VWP-eligible countries submitted a request for VWP recognition; this was documented in the Electronic System for Travel Authorizations (ESTAs) to make entries into, and exits from the U.S. ESTA also holds previous traveler information, indicating if they have dual citizenship in Iran, Iraq, Syria or Sudan. If an ESTA approved traveler hits either trip flare – entry to one of the four countries in the past five years, or they are dual citizens of a VWP country AND one of the four countries listed above – those travelers have had their ESTA authorizations revoked. Until they see a U.S. Consular Officer to apply for a visa waiver, they cannot enter the United States. Visa waivers (since they are no longer eligible for an ESTA authorization) are issued on a case-by-case basis…there’s no ready-made rule(s) on what will or will not get someone an approved visa waiver to get back into the U.S.

The Secretary of Homeland Security indicated some of the visa waiver possibilities, such as:

– Travelers to Iran, Iraq, Sudan or Syria on behalf of international organizations, regional organizations, and sub-national governments on official duty;

– Travelers to Iran, Iraq, Sudan or Syria on behalf of a humanitarian NGO on official duty;

– Travelers to Iran, Iraq, Sudan or Syria as a journalist for reporting purposes;

– Travelers to Iran for legitimate business-related purposes following the conclusion of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (July 14, 2015); and

– Travelers to Iraq for legitimate business-related purposes.

Current U.S. passport holders and Foreign Nationals with resident Green Cards already have travel data on-file with Homeland Security in regard to their travel to one of the four, flagged countries, and any dual citizenship thereto. The new rules, so far, do not revoke someone’s Green Card for travel to, or dual citizenship from, the four flagged countries.

Steve Miller, Copyright (c) 2016

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Foreign Policy Research & Analysis

Did Iran Technically Violate the Recent November 2015 Nuclear Accord by Testing Missiles?

sajil-missile-iran

First, let me say this, I lived and worked in Iran as a young man from 1976 to 1979.  My 23 co-workers and I did not leave the country until after the Shah had been gone about one month.  I had many close friends in Iran, and I was very saddened over the next 10 years or so when I’d receive word when different ones of them were killed during or soon after the Revolution, or in the Iran-Iraq War.  I enjoyed the people, the country and the culture, and have always wanted to go back.

     I encourage you to read my recent articles here concerning Iran.  One is quite long because it contains a strategic report I wrote about Iran in 1977 as part of my job while I was there.  Also, take a look at my Dec 28th article on Quora.com about the sanctions against Iran.  I updated the full picture, and also touched on the ballistic missile launch in the news.  I noted previously that the general public keeps focusing mostly on American sanctions against Iran; little is said about the numerous UN Security Council resolutions which imposed sanctions on Iran, too.  I watched the tape of a Dec 15th UN Security Council meeting where the ballistic missile launch was discussed as being a direct violation of one of the UN resolutions.  Read my Dec 28th article on Quora.com for more information.

     As of this writing, the general public is aware of six launch vehicles (rockets/missiles)  the Iranian’s have engineering documentation for.  Five of the six ballistic missiles are capable of being manufactured by Iran for operational use in nuclear weapons delivery. To date, four of the five operational models are medium range ballistic missiles (MRBM), and one is short range.  All of the countries with operational nuclear weapons also have the ability to produce, and put satellites into orbit.

     Part of the puzzle in tracking a country’s ability to deliver a nuclear weapon is that many missiles often serve in multiple roles of launching satellites, nuclear warheads, conventional high explosives, and biological/chemical weapons.  Although the Iranian missiles listed below are incapable of striking the Continental United States, a range of 1,500 miles would allow Iran to attack locations as far away as: Budapest, Hungary; Minsk, Belarus; Moscow, Russia; all of India (except its eastern & southernmost provinces), Afghanistan, and Pakistan; lastly, anywhere in the Middle East & the Red Sea, including Israel and Saudi Arabia.  This is why Iranian nuclear weapons capability is unacceptable by most United Nations members.  Exacerbating the overall situation, Iran and North Korea have been partnered on nuclear weapons and launch vehicle development for quite some time.

              Iranian Missiles Capable of Launching and Delivering a Nuclear Warhead
  Model Name          Type         Range  Warhead (lbs)     Comments
        Fajr-3        MRBM     1,500 miles           1,760 In sevice (2006)
     Shahab-2         SRBM     1,200 miles          2,640 In sevice (1998)
     Shahab-3        MRBM     1,260 miles          2,178 In sevice (2003)
     Shahab-4        MRBM     1,200 miles          1,760  Design on hold
         Sejil-1        MRBM     1,150 miles     Unavailable  In sevice (2014)
        Sejil-2        MRBM     1,200 miles     Unavailable  In sevice (2014)
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Military Operations, History & Cyber Warfare, Miscellaneous Topics

My Thoughts as a Vietnam Veteran About the War Memorial on Veteran’s Day 2015

vietnam war memorial     Recently, someone asked me what I think about when the Vietnam War Memorial in Washington, D.C. comes to mind.  Over the years my thoughts have coalesced into one recurring image and my feelings that go with it.  I am sharing this with you on Veteran’s Day, as a Vietnam 4th Generation Veteran.  I hope my thoughts will strike a cord with you.  God Bless All of Us, and God Bless America.

     I was an aircrew member of an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft that was the last U.S. military aircraft to leave the territorial airspace of South Vietnam on April 30, 1975, the day Saigon fell.  Our bed-down base in Thailand was besieged with all sorts of South Vietnamese Air Force planes when they fled the country.  The planes often landed without any radio contact with our airfield control tower.  After seeing this spectacle, we went to our hootches for the night, but were back on the flightline at 0700 hrs the next morning.  My pal, Jerry, and I just stood there in profound silence, looking at all of those SVAF planes that did not belong there, but, were scattered haphazardly everywhere.  Both of us felt this overwhelming sadness because we had witnessed the death throes of a country until the last twitch from the lifeless body.

     That same profound silence and overwhelming sadness comes back to me whenever I visit the Vietnam Memorial.  It’s a humbling experience, and I’ve never seen anyone who does not have a sense of reverence during their visit to the wall.  It’s only my feeling that the souls listed on the wall are watched over by angels, as it should be, for the supreme sacrifice they each made.  Every one of them deserves that respect and reverence…we can never repay the 58,000 dead.  In a way, the men & women listed on that wall have a level of peace & understanding that their comrades who made it home haven’t had.

     To those 58,000 lost souls, I can only render a hand salute and say: “By the grace of God, from the bottom of my heart, thank-you for your service.”

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Foreign Policy Research & Analysis

Why Does it Appear the White House is Coordinating the Air War Against ISIS Instead of the Pentagon?

Coalition_Airstrike_on_ISIL_position_in_Kobane

The facts on the ground in Syria and Iraq are very complex.  Trying to ensure coalition leadership gets the targeting done right is akin to attempting to pull your kid off of a spinning merry-go-round blindfolded…there’s lots of opportunity to get it wrong. As of today, April 6, 2015, the Coalition nations conducting  airstrikes in Iraq include the United States, Australia, Belgium,  Canada, Denmark, France, Jordan, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom.  The Coalition nations conducting airstrikes in Syria include the United  States, Bahrain, Canada, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab  Emirates.  All of these assets are coordinated through one air component combatant commander for Operation INHERENT RESOLVE. The current ground combatants in Syria for Inherent Resolve includes the Syrian Army, the original Rebel Insurgents who have been trying to topple Bashar Al-Assad’s Administration for the past four plus years, and ISIL.  To be sure, ISIL is clearly a faction of opportunists who took advantage of the civil war raging between the other two groups and accomplished quite a lot in a very short time-frame. Similarly in Iraq, ISIL recognized the disheveled Iraqi Government and a shaky infrastructure, then looked at the semi-autonomous Kurds and decided they could also exploit the disjointed and dysfunctional situation in Iraq. Considering all of this, and there are five Islamic-based countries flying sorties for the coalition, the United States cannot afford to misstep in the bombing campaign.  You ask why the Obama Administration is so heavy handed in managing the air war?  Because this military action could easily become an albatross around President Obama’s neck, and become the legacy he is saddled with as he leaves the White House.  Basically, a situation very reminiscent of the baggage carried by President Bush when he turned over the keys to Obama in January 2009.  Numerous people in and supporting the Obama Administration derided the Bush Administration for overseeing an apparent botched job in OEF and OIF.  The Obama Administration has learned by the school of hard knocks that managing a combat operation in the Middle East is not as easy as it looks. You can look to the Johnson Administration during the Vietnam War and see a President also micro-managing a complex bombing campaign.  Whether you are Lyndon Johnson or Barack Obama, if you are really worried about the “kids not coloring inside the lines,” then you grab the crayons and start coloring the picture yourself.  Take the time to watch the HBO TV-movie from 2002, “Path to War,” about the Johnson White House during the Vietnam War.  It is very instructive in comprehending how a sitting President tried extremely hard to get the right facts about the War raging in Southeast Asia so good, intelligent decisions could be made about the bombing operations in North Vietnam.  I have no doubt there have been many heated discussions within the Obama Administration about Inherent Resolve’s air war, and the constant efforts to get the bombing done correctly for the ground combatants the Coalition is supporting.  But, make no mistake, numerous parallels are eyed every day in and out of the Administration in terms of how things are measuring up to both the Johnson legacy and the Bush legacy. The risk of “getting-it-wrong” in Syria and Iraq is much too high for the Obama team to feel comfortable letting go of the reins.

Steve Miller, Copyright (c) 2015

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Military Operations, History & Cyber Warfare, Miscellaneous Topics

A Commentary on Jewish Military Service in Israel versus Jewish Military Service in the U.S.

In all countries the world over, patriotism and military service know no boundaries, religion or otherwise.  Many Jews served in the German armed forces during WW I.  Members of the Jewish faith were flabbergasted in 1930s when German laws were changed to bar Jews from military service.  Those on active duty at the time were summarily discharged.
The greatest thing about our American way-of-life is: We can choose to serve in the military or not.  People from other countries desire to have these blessings and will volunteer to come join our military.  As for members of the Jewish faith serving in the US. military, I am a 4th generation U.S. serviceman and until right now, I never gave any thought to the religious mix of our military, regardless the faith.
Compulsory military service in Israel relates directly to the country being wedged into a geographically precarious position, and a day does not go by that their sovereignty is not threatened in some way.  If an Israeli citizen is serious in keeping their nation whole, their willingness to serve is critical to the country’s survival.  Citizens of the United States are blessed with an incredible level of prosperity and security compared to the rest of the world.  Faced with global hegemony on a massive scale in World War II from Germany and Japan, Americans at home and abroad had to step-up in some way to protect the lifestyle that so many of their forefathers had already paid the ultimate price.

Steve Miller, Copyright (c) 2008

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