Foreign Policy Research & Analysis, Intelligence Collection, Analysis & Estimates, Terrorism Information

What are the best open source global intelligence databases?

Let me share some tips with you that I’ve picked-up along the way that helps me do what I do, and am sought after for Global Intelligence Research & Analysis (GIRA). I’ll apologize in advance if I share something you already know, or are aware of. Since I do not know you, nor your current level of knowledge, I am not going to make any assumptions.

One of the things I have determined over the years about GIRA is simply this: There are two types of people doing GIRA…the professionals who are really good at it, and then everybody else. How can you tell if someone has the intrinsic “stuff” to be really good at GIRA? I like illustrating things using metaphors and examples; so, here’s one on being a GIRA expert. Have you ever heard of the social science concept called “Abraham Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs?” Maslow theorized that human behavior can be categorized based on one of five need levels, and the level someone is on currently, can go up or down on a real-time basis in the blink-of-an-eye. The five levels are:

  1. Physiological Needs. These are the things to sustain human life. Breathing oxygen is as basic as it can get.
  2. Security Needs. Shelter, clothing, avoiding immediate danger.
  3. Socialization Needs. The human trait to interact with other humans.
  4. Recognition, Achievement Needs. Human desire to advance, self-worth, be seen by others as adding value.
  5. Self-Actualization Needs. Ever wonder why someone will voluntarily jump out of a perfectly good airplane to use a parachute? Why does a NASCAR racing driver want to drive a 3,000+ lb car at 200 mph while he’s literally bumper-to-bumper and door-to-door – only inches apart – from three or four other cars? Why did Air Force pilot, Chuck Yeager, want to fly an airplane to break the sound barrier in 1947? These are examples of people self-actualizing; doing something because there is a burning desire inside them that is so important, it defies understanding by most people…except for the few others with the same unfulfilled need.

If you want to be a really good GIRA expert, your desire must derive from Maslow’s 5th level. A good example of a self-actualizing GIRA expert is me…how important is it to me to self-actualize GIRA? Well, I am writing about it right now on Christmas Day. Not too many people will see this as being a burning need, so much so, I need to do it on Christmas. The GIRA tips and techniques I will describe are only useful if you put them to work…you gotta, wanna know.

Tips on Open Source Intelligence Research & Analysis

  1. Establish your personal knowledge baseline. My four kids are all grown and on their own. When they were in grade school they frequently asked me, “Dad, what do we have to do to be smart?” My answer was: “Read anything and everything you can get your hands on.” When I said anything and everything, I told the kids that meant if they were just waiting in the grocery store checkout line, read the ingredients on the box of cookies in your basket! You have to be a voracious reader. The reason it is so critical to have an ultra-high level personal knowledge baseline is simply because when you start to get serious about GIRA, you are not going to have the time to focus on a topic to produce a GIRA product of integrity quick enough to do someone any good if you have to go school yourself, first. Sometimes you have that luxury; but, if someone is paying you money for your intellectual product, you can’t take too much time to produce it. People and/or companies requesting GIRA from you, view time & money in the same context. This being said, having an evolving, expanding knowledge baseline in general, and a certain topic, in specific, allows you to monitor global happenings within the topic area and quickly spot something that’s not part of your baseline knowledge and determine whether it’s something significant enough to dig further.
  2. Determining if your generic personal knowledge baseline is adequate. About 15 years ago when I decided to start dabbling in GIRA for-hire, I knew already that my ability to find, absorb & analyze data for myself, or for the seminars & college classes I taught, or the magazine articles I wrote, or my management duties, was adequate. But, I wondered what I could do to compare my knowledge against a recognized base of global knowledge? I don’t know if you’ve ever sat for any type of professionally recognized credentialing exam, like the CPA (certified public accountant), or the Bar exam to be an attorney, or the exam to become a licensed U.S. Customs Broker, etc. These are some of the toughest exams anywhere. For the level of knowledge needed on a global scale, I decided to apply for candidacy to become a Foreign Service Officer in the U.S. Diplomatic Corps. Before the State Dept will even interview, you have to pass the FSO exam. These days the FSO jobs are highly sought after, which makes the candidacy process very competitive. For anyone without 10-15 yrs of experience that’s useful in the Diplomatic Corps, the younger, entry-level candidates won’t get too far in the application process unless they at least have a Masters Degree. So, when you sit for the FSO exam, if you are not extremely well versed in a broad range of global topics, you won’t pass. I’ve taken numerous professional credential exams before; the FSO exam is/was the toughest I’ve ever taken…but, I passed. That was good enough for me, and I didn’t pursue FSO idea further. It intrigued me, but at 50 back then, I decided I’d to let the idea go. You don’t need to go this far to see if your knowledge measures up; but, you get my drift…you have to really know your stuff.
  3. Where to find GIRA primary source material. There’s two types of GIRA, Static Data R&A, and Dynamic, Emergent Data R&A. SDRA is generally the history-based side of GIRA. SDRA can be at either a macro or micro level. Sources for this type of analysis are not difficult to find because the SDRA report you generate is not meant to give actively changing, ongoing emergent R&A. Don’t get me wrong; SDRA reports are not supposed to contain just stale (i.e.; mostly past tense that’s not changing anymore) information, unless the requester has asked specifically for a mostly historical report. SDRAs I’ve done for corporations, like an inquiry about a country’s climate for a new business venture, need a mix of historical data, and anything relevant to the current business climate. If you were writing an SDRA report on Indonesia and during your R&A an airliner crashes on takeoff from Jakarta’s international airport, it’s not likely to impact report, and it would be too early to include it until the impact to your report, if any is understood. On the flip side, reporting intelligence information that’s in the DEDRA category requires primary source material that is extremely time sensitive. This is when your ability to identify information sources beyond the typical is really important. There are many sources that can cover static (historical) and dynamic (emergent) information. Remember: regardless what kind of data a source has available on the internet, it didn’t get there for free…it’s being paid for somehow. Some of the primary sources I list below are those you cannot access for free. One thing about GIRA…are you looking to prepare a macro report or a micro one? What I’ve listed below is not everything I use, just the ones I’ve used reliably from time-to-time (some a lot more than others). I have other sources I’ll use to fine tune my info and double check my facts. I pick-up new sources all of the time.

Lastly, GIRA is not an expertise you can just learn out of a textbook. My methods, sources and thoughts expressed here, work for me, and there may be 100 people out there that disagrees. So be it. Everyone can choose their own path that makes them happy and/or financially successful. What you do with all of this info I’ve provided is now up to you! Note: Due to the dozens and dozens of sources I listed, I did not take the time to add-in all of the hyperlinks…gotta leave ya with something to do!

Best of luck!

Air Force E-publishing

USAF Air University

Air Power Australia

American Special Operations

AVIALOGS

Aviation Week & Space Technology

Baseops.net Flight Planning, Aviation Weather & Military Discounts

Bibliography of the Vietnam War

Black Vault

Boeing Acronyms And Definitions

Currency Converter

Defense Department

Defense One

Defense Technical Information Center

Demand Media Studios

Designation-Systems.Net

Federal Aviation Administration

Federation of American Scientists –

Global Digital Media Network

Guide to Military Equipment and Civil Aviation

International Rescue Committee (IRC)

Joe Baugher's Military Aircraft Index

Joint Electronic Library, Joint Concepts

Mach One Manuals

Mine Action Group

MIT Security Studies Program (SSP)

Myinforms World News

National Security Archive

National Security Council

National Security Internet Archive

NATO

OECD

Pacific War Online Encyclopedia

RadioReference.com

SearchMil.com

SIPRI

Spyflight

The Library of Congress.

Time Zone Map

U.S. Military – CNN.com

World Health Organization

United Nations International Childrens’ Fund (UNICEF)

United Nations High Commission for Refugees

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

United Nations Development Programme

United Nations Peacekeeping Operations

The World Bank

International Labor Organization

World Food Programme

Center for Intelligence and Security Studies

Center for Strategic and International Studies

RAND Corp Research Services and Public Policy Analysis

SmartBrief | Industry E-mail Newsletters for Professionals

Sanctions Programs and Country Information

American History [ushistory.org]

DoDBuzz

Global Security

Department of Homeland Security

Heritage Foundation

National Security Network

Military.com

U.S. State Dept.

Stratfor

Office of the Director of National Intelligence

The National Counterintelligence Executive

The National Counterterrorism Center

Bureau of Intelligence and Research

National Technical Information Service

Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence

ProQuest

Federal Research Division of Library of Congress

U.S. Army Foreign Military Studies Office

Defense Intelligence Agency

NATO Open Source Intelligence Handbook

OSINT Deep Web Search for user names and e-mail addresses

NATO OSINT Reader

Open Source Solutions

Janes.com

Digital Globe – High Resolution Global Imagery

Foreign Policy.com

U.S. Dept of Commerce

Steve Miller, Copyright (c) 2006, 2012, 2015, 2018

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Foreign Policy Research & Analysis, National Security, Terrorism Information

What is the legal definition of “National Security” established by the US Courts?

To get the full treatment on the topic of National Security from the U.S. point of view, take a look at my series of general FAQs I wrote for Quora at the following link:

https://www.quora.com/topic/National-Security/faq

One of the FAQs provides the U.S. Government definition of National Security, as follows:

Within the context of how the United States defines National Security, it was developed and promulgated via Joint Publication #1 by the Department of Defense, Joint-Chiefs-of-Staff. The meaning is: A collective term encompassing both national defense and foreign relations of the United States with the purpose of gaining: a. A military or defense advantage over any foreign nation or group of nations; b. A favorable foreign relations position; or c. A defense posture capable of successfully resisting hostile or destructive action from within or without, overt or covert.

In terms of a “legal” definition of National Security either in the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations (CFRs), or anything based on a Federal District, Appeals or Supreme Court ruling that might create “case law,” you will not find anything. The reason why is the term, by its very nature, is too broad, and any level in the U.S. court system would be committing “judicial suicide” if they attempted to render a felony trial verdict based on an attempt to fully encapsulate a definition of National Security.

Not trying to be flippant, but, attempting to create a single, legally binding definition of National Security that could hold up to an ultimate determination by the U.S. Supreme Court, would be just as difficult as to pin down as legally defining the term “Chocolate Donut.”

Seriously, take a look at my National Security FAQs. Part of the problem with trying to pin down a legally binding definition of National Security is simply that it is a moving target that is constantly evolving. My FAQs denote some of the more recent developments that now pose a National Security threat that no one would have dreamed of 50–60 years ago. Here are a few examples of what I mean:

  1. Global Climate Change;
  2. Trans-National Crime;
  3. A Global Disease Pandemic;
  4. Cyber-based Infrastructure Threats;
  5. Space-borne Threats. And this is not just “Star Wars” stuff with killer satellites and lasers. The U.S. is the ONLY country in the World to track the tens of thousands of pieces of space junk, defunct satellites, micro-meteorites, et al, that could potentially enter the earth’s atmosphere, or possibly collide accidentally with an important spacecraft up there. A burned-out Russian satellite has already collided with an American in-use satellite that before the collision, there were just two objects, and now the debris has made thousands of objects.

If you go back to the 1930s, not only were the threats listed above either unknown, or considered non-threatening, but, no one had an inkling about a nuclear holocaust being a National Security threat either.

These are just some of the things we have added to the National Security threat list since World War II. I am sure there is more to come, and our understanding of what constitutes National Security will continue to evolve, too.

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Military Operations, History & Cyber Warfare

Navy Releases Investigation Report of U.S. Patrol Boats Seized by Iran

navy-boat-crew-seizure_iran_jan2016

U.S. Navy boat crew held at gunpoint aboard their own vessel in a photograph taken at the time of the seizure.

A U.S. Navy investigation board’s Report was publicly released on June 30, 2016, via a FOIA request.  Although the Report had been classified Secret/NOFORN, the FOIA request triggered an MDR (Mandatory Declassification Review) by the Navy.  In my estimation, the MDR process did not go overboard in redacting too many important facts of the case; it was a fair review.  Vice Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Michelle Howard, endorsed (with comments) the Report.

Rather than regurgitate the entire report, which, if read carefully cover-to-cover, takes about two hours, I will summarize the key facts here.  I also developed a map to help visualize the Persian Gulf geography that factored into the Iranian seizure incident.

In January 2016 two U.S. Navy coastal riverine patrol boats based out of Kuwait City received orders to make an all day trip through the Persian Gulf to the naval support facility in Bahrain.  Approximately half-way through their non-combat sortie, one of the two boats developed an engine casualty, and both boats stopped to troubleshoot and repair the problem.  While the two riverine boats sat dead-in-the-water in the middle (literally!) of the Persian Gulf, they drifted inside the territorial limit surrounding tiny, Farsi Island, which belongs to Iran.  Before the two Navy craft could make repairs, and get underway again, they were detained at gunpoint by patrol boats of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN).  The American boats and their crews were seized (without violence), and directed to follow the IRGCN boats to a jetty on Farsi Island.  The sailors and their boats were released 24 hours later unharmed, following high level negotiations.  A U.S. Navy investigation was immediately launched to determine the facts leading to the seizure incident.

Background Information

The entire Persian Gulf area, including the surrounding countries, fall under the jurisdiction of the U.S. military’s Central Command.  The naval warfare & maritime security component of U.S. Central Command is a dual-hat leadership command held by a Vice Admiral who also commands the Navy’s Fifth Fleet (CFF).  Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) patrol the Persian (Arabian) Gulf, the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, and northwest portions of the Indian Ocean (i.e.; the Arabian Sea).

In addition to the CSGs, CCF has numerous support forces located in, and around, the Persian Gulf.  One of the most important of these is Task Force 56 (CTF56), headquartered in Bahrain.  CTF56 is commanded by a Navy Captain (O-6).  CTF56 has numerous Task Groups structured under it for such things as: EOD, diving & salvage, and maritime security.  The maritime security component is Task Group 56.7 (CTG56.7), headquartered in the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) Jebel Ali port facility, adjacent to Dubai.  CTG56.7 is a command billet for a Navy Commander (O-5).  The two Navy patrol boats seized by Iran were part of CTG56.7.

Standard Navy practice for CTG56.7 is to deploy a complete Coastal Riverine Squadron (CRS) from CONUS for a six-month tour (sans a small reach-back staff left at home for unit coordination).  While the CRS is deployed, its billeted commander is dual-hatted as CTG56.7’s commander.  CTG56.7, at the time of the seizure incident, had four detachments; one co-located with CTG56.7 headquarters at Jebel Ali, and three sub-deployed (remote) detachments.  One detachment was located at the Port of Fujairah on the UAE’s eastern coast, almost directly due east of Dubai; it is reachable by car in less than two hours.  The other two remote detachments were located in Bahrain and Kuwait City.  The two boats involved in the seizure belonged to CTG56.7’s three-boat detachment in Kuwait City.

The two incident boats were U.S. Navy Riverine Command Boats (RCBs). The RCBs come from Sweden, and are labeled as: CB90-class, fast assault craft.  The U.S. Navy purchased six of these boats.  RCBs are 52’ long, drawing just 2½’ of water, with a flank speed of 40+ knots.  By U.S. Navy standards, RCBs are manned for combat by a crew of six sailors; only five per boat were aboard at the time of seizure.  A normal crew consists of a boat captain (usually an enlisted, Chief Petty Officer), a coxswain, a boat engineer, and three gunners.  Enlisted boat captains have been trained, qualified and previously served as coxswains, engineers, and gunners.  Likewise, coxswains have been engineers & gunners, and engineers are also experienced gunners.  RCBs have some features similar to the Navy’s 31’ PBRs successfully used in the Vietnam War.  These features include: being fast, highly maneuverable (due to the Jacuzzi-style water jet pumps), and can transition from flank speed to dead-in-the-water in just 2.5 boat lengths.  RCBs typically carry a Mark 19 automatic 40mm grenade launcher, and three .50 caliber heavy machine guns.  Another RCB feature (common to all small watercraft) is its limited, 130 nautical mile operating range with a full fuel load.  The RCB’s range would figure into the events leading up to the seizure.

Navy Riverine Boat

RCBs are typically crewed by Navy Special Warfare Combatant Craft Crewmen (SWCCs).  SWCCs are one of the most highly trained Navy career fields; almost as much as a SEAL.  Due to sequestration and budget cuts in 2012, The Navy merged Riverine Group 1 and the Maritime Expeditionary Security Group 2, into the Coastal Riverine Force (CRF).  CRF was created with two Coastal Riverine Groups, one near North Island in San Diego, and the other in Portsmouth, Virginia.  Each group has three CRS’ under its command.  CRS3 belongs to Coastal Riverine Group One in San Diego.  When the CRF was formed, it combined two groups with differing raisons d’être.  The new CRF launched comprehensive cross-training to level-set the skills needed to integrate the sailors from the two, now defunct, groups.

In-Theater Details Leading Up to the Seizure

At the time of the incident in January 2016, CRS3 was in the fifth month of its six-month deployment as CTG56.7.  When CRS3 arrived in-theater, the Kuwait City detachment did not exist.  After negotiating the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, the Pentagon deemed it prudent to activate a fourth detachment in Kuwait City to keep tabs on Iranian naval activity in the Gulf’s northern reaches.  To accomplish this, three RCBs and their crews, plus some support personnel, were ordered to stand-up a new detachment in Kuwait.

In my estimation, one of the ominous signs involving this new detachment was assigning a naval aviator as the Officer-in-Charge (OIC).  Giving the benefit of the doubt to the miscast OIC, I do not dispute the OIC’s leadership skills, above average intelligence, nor considerable educational background.  Beyond these “given” factors, however, it is not easily understood why a career aviator was assigned to lead a coastal riverine detachment that was outside of his normal skill-set.  The Navy investigation revealed that the naval aviator/OIC’s detachment leadership was laid back.  The detachment’s lax atmosphere was not a direct factor in the seizure incident; but, it was contributory.  Of greater concern to me was the questionable decision-making by CTF56 and CTG56.7 commanders.  Assigning an aviator as OIC of a riverine boat detachment was just one of the numerous, flawed leadership decisions made at both levels.

Based on investigation interviews, and the investigator’s additional research & fact-checking, the Report laid-out a character profile of Task Force 56’s skipper at the time of the RCB’s seizure.  I also took the time to conduct my own research into various aspects of the overall situation in CTF56, such as: its operating tempo, the regional situation it dealt with on a daily basis, command climate, ROEs, personnel issues, and the military equipment & weapon systems they employed.

My summary of the CTF56 commander can be stated using several common euphemisms, like: gung-ho, hard charger, failure is not an option, can-do attitude, et al.  In the arena of sociology and organizational behavior, some might translate the foregoing terms into a “Theory X” leadership style – often prevalent with a Type A personality.  There is nothing intrinsically wrong with these characterizations, as long as they are tempered at times with some moderation.  One of the themes that came through in the Report, and my own research, was the CTF56 skipper fostered a command climate of “will do,” not just “can do.”  Many decades ago I worked for a retired Army Colonel.  His command style was to shout, “jump” to everyone.  The only response he expected was two-fold: First, without hesitation, you leaped into-the-air; and the second response while you were airborne was simply, “how high?”  This may be an appropriate fit for the CTF56 command climate.

Speaking of command climate in CTF56, investigators traced several angles that surfaced in this regard.  One angle to bear fruit was the not-so-uncommon hesitancy to ask questions-of-clarity about command orders by lower ranking officers.  The officers indicated their concern about appearing like they were trying to “rock-the-boat,” as the saying goes.

About halfway through CRS3’s six-month tour in the Persian Gulf, orders came from U.S. Central Command to increase Navy maritime security presence in the northern Gulf.  This decision came in the wake of the successfully concluded Iranian nuclear deal.  The Bahraini detachment was the northernmost unit of CTG56.7.  Traveling from Bahrain to the northern gulf is about a 300-mile trip, one way; this far exceeded the RCB’s range.  CTG56.7 staffers immediately began planning the effort to stand-up a new detachment in Kuwait City for northern gulf patrols.  Although the Fifth Fleet could have ordered a larger, deep draft vessel already stationed in the Persian Gulf to take-on the new tasking, this was quickly ruled out for two reasons: 1.) Sending a larger combatant vessel into an area where they routinely did not operate might be seen as provocative by Tehran, and; 2.) Assigning a deep draft vessel to patrol the confines of the northern gulf posed an unhealthy security risk of being exposed to attack from too many directions at once, especially from land.  Since surveillance was the primary role of the new patrol – not armed reconnaissance – it was deemed more prudent to keep a low profile by using coastal riverine patrol boats.

The Kuwait detachment activation was carefully planned, and then back-briefed to CTF56 & CTG56.7 leadership.   The detachment activation plan was fully approved, and the planners received a pat-on-the-back for their efforts.  A good example of the well-planned detachment activation was the transport of the three 52’ RCBs from Bahrain-to-Kuwait.  The over-the-water distance between the two port-cities was almost 260 nautical miles – double the maximum operating range of an RCB.  The Kuwait action plan included loading the three RCBs aboard an Army coastal transport ship that went back n’ forth between Bahrain and Kuwait on a regular basis.  When the RCBs encountered the Iranian Navy a couple of months later, the two boats and 10 sailors were making a 259 nmi trip from Kuwait-to-Bahrain.  This is one of the numerous factors that belied the lack of effective two-way communication during CRS3’s Middle East deployment.  Deploying the boats to Kuwait was deemed to0 far for the boats to transit on their own, so, the Army hauled them up there.  Two months later, however, two boats were ordered by CTF56 to make the same lengthy trip (in reverse) under their own power.  None of the 10 crew members on the trip had ever made that long of a continuous, over-the-water journey in a small, open boat.  In order to accomplish the feat, the RCBs were scheduled to be refueled in open water, half-way through the trip.  Allowing the boats to make this long trip under their own power was a major factor leading to the seizure incident.

Considering the “will do” climate of CTF56, and the mirroring effect at CTG56.7, the orders for two boats to travel from Kuwait-to-Bahrain were not questioned.  The orders were issued with only a one-day notice.  In January 2016, the Kuwait boat detachment was significantly short-handed in maintenance personnel and spare parts.  In order to complete the mission, as ordered, the boat crews were up all night, making their own repairs by cannibalizing parts from the third boat.  The detachment OIC received permission from higher authority to cannibalize the third boat.  Instead of authorizing the cannibalization, higher authority should have probed the request, which would have revealed the lack of parts and mechanics. Another telling gaff resulting from the “midnight maintenance” work was the complete disregard for crew-rest requirements for small boat operators.  Crewing a coastal riverine boat at high speed in open ocean is just as debilitating as it can be for military aviators.  To say the least, the two RCB crews were exhausted before their trip even started.

One of the few correct actions taken prior to making the Kuwait-to-Bahrain trip was seeking route planning guidance from the navigator aboard the Army’s coastal transport; he made the trip dozens of times.  The accompanying map of the Persian Gulf shows the situational layout of the area.  Let me familiarize the reader about the maritime situation in the Persian Gulf.

Much has been spoken of the narrow Strait-of-Hormuz at the southern entrance to the Persian Gulf.  The strait at its narrowest point is 33 statute miles.  At sea-level, the two points-of-land are about nine miles over the horizon from each other.  In an interesting twist of geography vs. political sovereignty, the land on the Arabian side of the narrowest point in the strait is Omani, not the UAE, as many people think.  The land mass jutting toward Iran is the Musandam Peninsula, and there is only one small Omani fishing village, Kumzar, at the northern end.  Musandam is so mountainous, Kumzar is unreachable by land.  In fact, Musandam Province, Oman, is completely landlocked by the UAE from Oman proper.  The nearest Omani military facilities to Kumzar are 25 miles away by boat, in Khasab.  The U.S. Navy coastal riverine detachments in Fajairah & Jebel Ali, are approximately 70 miles and 120 miles, respectively, from the tip of the Musandam Peninsula.  The narrow confines of the Strait-of-Hormuz are carefully monitored 24/7, and it is extremely difficult (and potentially dangerous!) for any military force under, on, or over-the-water, to attempt an unnoticed provocative act.

Farsi Island

The foregoing is mentioned as a contrast to the relatively more open areas of the Gulf reaching north from the Straits-of-Hormuz.  Traveling by water from Hormuz, you must go 130 miles west-southwest, and then another 470 miles north-northwest, to reach the northern limits near the Iraq/Iran border.  After moving away from Hormuz into the open Gulf areas, the narrowest area between Saudi Arabia and Iran is just over 100 miles across.  This narrowest point on the Arabian coast is 52 miles north of the large port city, Dammam.  One of the major difficulties for any vessel transiting the Persian Gulf is the preexisting natural barriers and obstacles, including numerous islands, and sand bars.  These issues can further reduce the Gulf’s navigable waters.  And, as if this were not enough, the various countries all have territorial limits that further restricts what is considered open, navigable, international waters.  The location in which the boat seizure occurred was the Iranian-owned Farsi Island (Note: The Farsi Island land mass is less than one square mile!).  The Gulf is 130 miles wide at Farsi Island’s location, just about in the middle.  Saudi territorial waters completely surround Farsi Island.  This means that if any vessel transiting the area wants to remain in open, international waters, they cannot pass through the 65-mile gap between the Saudi coastline and Farsi Island; it would be an encroachment of Saudi sovereignty.  Standard procedure for any shipping without official business in Saudi waters, is to pass to the east of Farsi Island.  Over-the-water passage between Kuwait and Bahrain cannot be made via a direct route without crossing through sovereign, Saudi Arabian waters.  As noted on the map, Kuwait-to-Bahrain is almost a 260 mile, two-leg trip around Farsi Island.  This was the planned track the boats were expected to transit on-their-own, meeting a refueling ship en route.

Report findings show that not long after the Kuwait boat detachment was activated, the concept of “running-a-tight-ship” waned rather quickly.   When the Navy investigators dug into the root cause of the lapses in normal military practice, much of the blame fell on the discernable lack of senior “eyes-on management.”  In specific terms: throughout the six-month deployment of Coastal Riverine Squadron, Three, three of the four officers over Task Force 56, and Task Group 56.7 (i.e.; the CO and XO from both levels), never visited the Kuwait-based boat crews.  The only one to make the effort was the XO from CRS3/CTG56.7.

Details on the Day of Seizure

Aside from the detachment’s midnight maintenance mentioned above, the Bahrain transit mission had operational problems before the boats ever cast off their lines.  Chief amongst the mission day problems was a four-hour departure delay.  Since the trip would take most of the day, the crews wanted to complete it during daylight hours; the plan was to leave Kuwait early in the morning.  Most adverse incidents & accidents occur due to a series of unplanned events.  If just one event in the chain of many can be stopped or avoided, it is unlikely the future incident/accident would still occur.  Clearly, the four-hour departure delay should have aborted the trip, and reschedule it for the next day. Unfortunately for the two boat crews, the mission was not aborted; they departed four hours late.  Navy investigators learned from boat crew interviews that scrubbing the mission would be seen as a failure of the “will do” credo, and bring unwanted attention on the RCB sailors.  Eliminating an important risk avoidance factor of transiting in daylight hours by ignoring the four-hour delay, was seen by the Kuwait detachment as preferable to getting their butts chewed-out for aborting the mission.  The four-hour delay ensured the crews would not arrive in Bahrain until well after dark.

Another contributory factor was the lack of mission surveillance.  Standard doctrine for small boat missions is to not only maintain periodic radio communications between the boats and the Tactical Operations Center (TOC), but, also monitor the boat’s physical location via GPS and other tactical sensors.  On mission day for the two RCBs, the TOC was never informed in advance about the transit mission to Bahrain.  Once the two boats left Kuwait, no one knew where they were.  The lack of alerting the TOC about the mission frag is another example of poor mission planning (non-existent, for the most part).  Had the mission surveillance protocol been followed, the TOC would have been able to alert the boat crews that their mission navigation was faulty, that they were deviating from the planned track.  In terms of situational awareness, the only entity with some sort of knowledge about the boat’s mission that day, was the skipper & crew of the refueling ship sent to the rendezvous location.

In another case of missed opportunity in breaking the chain-of-events, had the TOC been following the mission track, they would have spotted the route deviation almost the moment the boats cleared the Kuwaiti port.  The reason the TOC would have spotted the deviation so quickly via route surveillance is shown on the accompanying map via the blue route.  The blue route represents an approximation of the RCB’s actual route.  In an effort to make-up for the four-hour delay, the embarked patrol officer and boat captains decided to take a short cut through Saudi waters, rather than go out and around Farsi Island.  When the Iranians encountered the two boats which had stopped for an engine repair, they were 1.5 miles from Farsi Island.

The actual seizure itself was contributed to via some poor decision-making by the boat captains and patrol officer.  In the case of the two boat crews, there were nine enlisted personnel and one commissioned officer.  Based on training and experience, the officer was not a mission-qualified patrol officer, yet.  In fact, only one of the Chief Petty Officers who were qualified boat captains, was also a qualified patrol officer.  Legally speaking, the commissioned officer was only boat captain qualified that day.  Although the crew’s orders showed the one Chief Petty Officer as the patrol officer, he tacitly deferred to the commissioned officer to exercise patrol officer duties.  Part of the abdication philosophy held by the CPO, was his overt acknowledgement that the commissioned officer had more experience & training in conducting maritime navigation.  Aside from the track deviation, the commissioned officer made several, key errors in judgment & leadership, both before, and after the boats encountered the Iranians.

Navy investigators determined that of the ten sailors involved in the seizure, only one (a woman) was found to have used good judgment during the incident.  U.S. Navy boats and ships carry camcorders, and are supposed to film situations involving a foreign combatant vessel; this did not occur aboard either RCB.  The bright spot in all of this is the female NCO had the presence of mind to discretely record some video on her Smartphone.  The same NCO, maintaining situational awareness, recognized the likelihood that no one knew where they were.  In order to leave some kind of clue to their whereabouts, she activated the boat’s EPIRB (emergency radio beacon).  In VCNO Howard’s Report endorsement, the female NCO was praised for her efforts in trying to make a bad situation, better.

The balance of the incident investigation covered what occurred over the next 24 hours after the boats were seized.  Mistakes were made by some of the 10 crew members just prior, during, after the seizure, and during their brief captivity.  I’m not going to cover all of this in great detail.  Except for some action/inaction decisions made after encountering the Iranian patrol boat, but, before actual seizure, the rest had no bearing in preventing the incident. After the preliminary investigation report began making its rounds for endorsement, questions arose about the legality of Iran’s actions.  This led the VCNO to direct a JAGMAN investigation into international maritime laws, and whether Iran broke any of them.  JAG attorneys said Iran clearly broke several international laws in seizing and boarding the boats, as well as, illegally detaining the crews.

Investigations like this always look at the training received by mishap crews.  Several of the 10 sailors made strong statements about being inadequately trained for the mission undertaken.  This sentiment strongly focused on the lack of open water, maritime navigation skills.  The preliminary report findings cast aspersions on inadequate pre-deployment training.  The VCNO also ordered a deeper investigation of pre-deployment training.  This supplemental investigation demonstrated that training prior to deployment was appropriate for the defined mission, and that CRS3’s final exercise scenario was done properly, and they were ready to deploy.  The lack of more intense training in maritime navigation was justified by denoting the sort of navigation used for the 259-mile trip was atypical for a coastal riverine boat crew.  The navigation skills determined to be of use in the Persian Gulf after arrival in-theater, was one that deployed leadership should have arranged for on-location, supplemental training.  Incremental, on-location training is one that all service branches are responsible to set-up when encountering a local, atypical situation.  So, instead of blaming the stateside training cadre for inadequate pre-deployment navigation training, it became another local command failure.

I am sure that my thoughts at the time of the seizure incident were no different than anyone else familiar with the U.S. military.  It was a foregone conclusion that somebody (probably plural) was going to get fired over this incident.  The biggest question was: How far up the chain-of-command would it go?  The CRS3/CTG56.7 skipper was relieved of his duty while the investigation was ongoing.  Once the final report was endorsed and released to the various commands, the CO and XO of Task Force 56 were also relieved.  When the Navy released the redacted report on June 30th, the JAG Corps was evaluating whether certain other individuals, such as members of the two boat crews, ought to receive administrative, non-judicial punishment under Article 15 of the UCMJ.  JAG lawyers were also assessing whether a UCMJ Article 32 hearing (sort of like a grand jury investigation) should be convened to decide if there was sufficient evidence to conduct a courts martial for certain individuals.  One of the concerns surfaced by incident investigators was the possible violation of the U.S. military’s Code-of-Conduct for service members forcibly detained by a foreign entity.  The investigators recommended that the Code-of-Conduct ought to be revised to better clarify a service member’s actions while in captivity.  Again, senior flag officers reviewing the Report concluded the Code-of-Conduct should not be revised; better training was needed instead.

Summary

The seizure incident & investigation underscored my longstanding belief that for the most part, when something untoward happens, it is usually related to one or more failures to comply with existing rules & regulations.  History teaches us that our first reaction to an incident is usually empathy for the person(s) wronged; in this case, the two boat crews.  An unfortunate fact-of-life is: The ensuing investigation often finds that one or more of the “good guys” erred in judgment, or maybe cut some corners.  It might be true that the Iranian seizure was unlawful, but, that had nothing to do with the multiple errors made before encountering the Iranian patrol boats.  My greatest hope is that further Navy action avoids ruining too many lives.  If any service members end up being punished, let it be no worse than someone being administratively separated, and not something adverse that will follow that person outside of the military.

Steve Miller, Copyright (c) 2016

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Miscellaneous Topics

The Resurgence of Physician House Calls in the Wireless Age

Steve Miller, © Copyright 2016

QUESTION: “How many doctors in California perform house calls? I am considering launching an app that would allow patients to ‘order’ a doctor to their house, and want to know how many doctors in California already perform house calls.”

Greetings! Thanks for the opportunity to answer your question about the number of California doctors performing house calls. My research on the resurgent practice of physician house calls in the United States, in general, and California, in specific, reveals a fair amount of recent media coverage by such august institutions as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and U.S. News and World Report. Focusing on California, statistical data reveals an extremely shallow, statewide market penetration of 1,002 doctors making house calls out of 132,370 state-licensed physicians (per the 2015 report by the Medical Board of California). The comprehensive details listed below will give you a better picture of the all but abandoned service of home-based physician care and its comeback in the American healthcare industry.

BACKGROUND

For anyone interested in launching a business in the physician house calls market, it is an encouraging sign to see recent media coverage by some of the major outlets listed above. Aside from the fact their editors decided to run an introductory article on reinventing physician house calls, you will not learn much more than that. But, making a cursory overview of a topic is “journalism 101” for most media institutions with a large readership. It is almost like they are saying: “There…we ran something…next topic!” So, their skimpy reporting was not really a surprise. The next aspect uncovered during the research was somewhat surprising; but, it said a lot about the current marketplace for homed-based physician care.
Not expecting to find much from the likes of the Wall Street Journal, the research shifted to what was expected to be some fertile ground for information about the practice of physician house calls. An extensive search was conducted via some of the most highly regard U.S. institutions in the healthcare industry, to include: The U.S. Government’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), American Medical Association (AMA), Medical Board of California (MBC), California Medical Association (CMA), Federation of State Medical Boards (FSMB), American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP), Direct Primary Care Journal (DPCJ), and last, but not least, the American Academy of Home Care Medicine (AAHCM). Except for an above average article published in 2011 by the AAFP, entitled “House Calls,” and some useful content from AAHCM, the other organizations either had very little reference information or statistics about the physician house calls industry, or they had some fractional sub-topic coverage about one aspect of the industry, such as, volume 294 of the Journal of the American Medical Association from 2005, that featured an article entitled, “Trends in house calls to Medicare beneficiaries,” stemming from modifications in Medicare regulations that bumped a doctor’s fee reimbursements by 50% for home-based geriatric physician services. Attempting to locate a full-bodied treatment of the industry is quite elusive. There is no doubt the marketplace is gathering steam for expansion of the physician house calls business model; the timing is good for getting in on the ground-floor of this opportunity. If a doctor were to pursue this business model, however, he/she will need two things: 1.) Patience, and; 2.) Patients!

RESEARCH DETAILS

Looking at the data collected by the above healthcare institutions as recent as 2015, none have begun collecting or publishing statistical details on a regular basis about physician house calls. For example, the CMA, who is the flagship organization for medical professionals in California, lists their current focus issues as: Ensuring access to quality medical care; Strengthening public health; Promoting health education and advancing careers in health; Protecting the physician-patient relationship; Working to protect patients; Preserving economic stability, and Advancing new technologies. The resurgent physician house calls practice is not even on the CMA’s radar screen, yet. Similarly, both the FSMB and MBC conduct comprehensive, annual physician surveys, and they are yet to include any questions about physicians practicing home-based medical care. Not even the NCHS is reporting on home-based physician’s care.
Historians say that successfully moving forward in life, as a person, business or country, is never easy; but, it can be easier, if you pay attention to where you have been. The business of physician house calls can benefit from that wisdom. The 2011 AAFP article, House Calls, noted, “House calls were standard practice for physicians in 1930, when approximately 40% of patient encounters occurred in the patient’s home. By 1950, this had fallen to around 10%, and by 1980, only about 1% of patient encounters were house calls.” A 2008 AAFP nationwide survey reported that “the average family physician conducted fewer than one house call per week.” Statistically speaking, caring for patients in their homes has some wide-open possibilities.
There are a number of factors driving the resurgence of physician house calls. The AAHCM lists nationwide Medicare Part B-paid house calls from 1995 through 2014 – that’s 20 years of data – with a 76% increase over that timeframe. Prior to the improved Medicare payment model, home-based geriatric care was mostly for skilled nursing, hospice care, and other non-physician services. The CMA noted that physicians recognized the difficulties non-ambulatory geriatric patients had with making frequent healthcare provider office visits; however, Medicare Part B payments for house calls did not adequately compensate a physician for his/her services. But, the improved Medicare payment model does not tell the whole story when it comes to geriatric medicine. In 1995, even the oldest baby boomers were still in their early 50s, and a major component of the American workforce. Fast forward that by 20 years, according to the NCHS, we find that approximately 70% of the baby boomer generation is now retired. Baby boomers in their retirement years are another key contributor to the 76% increase in Medicare-paid physician house calls.
The enhanced financial upside in geriatric medicine for physician house calls is merely one component of the industry’s bounce back. There are a number of medically valid reasons for physician house calls. The AAFP House Calls article points out that even though there are legitimate reasons for a given patient to receive a physician house call, “The choice of location of care is [still] heavily dependent on the physician’s opinion.” More will be said on the medical benefits of house calls versus a physician’s preference in practicing medicine. The AAHCM says: “Lack of primary care access is one root cause in the genesis of higher health care costs… Instead of receiving appropriate primary medical care as chronic conditions destabilize or new problems develop, these persons get care in expensive ER’s and inpatient units. And who are these people? Everyone — upper and middle class Medicare recipients as well as the poor.” The Call Doctor Medical Group in California studied the cost difference between treating pneumonia in the home rather than the hospital [ER], using 2001 Medicare data. Average cost for hospital treatment was $5,159 while treatment at home cost $1,000. In 2016 dollars, this would be $6,954.26 and $1,345.38, respectively.
The AAHCM posted a Public Policy Statement on its website, vis-à-vis, their formal position on home-based medical care. The essence of the AAHCM statement is: The American healthcare industry needs a major, multi-institutional paradigm shift to make home-based medical care a workable business model for everyone. These institutions include: Federal, state and local government; insurance carriers and claims processing houses; hospitals & outpatient surgery centers; medical schools (i.e.; Johns Hopkins University, et al); pharmaceutical companies; doctors and group medical practices. Doctors and group medical practices were deliberately listed last to emphasize the point that the onus is on the other five industry groups to be the main forces-of-change in home-based medical care. Doctors alone, cannot be the catalyst for change.

ISSUES FOR THE PHYSICIAN

AAFP’s House Calls, said: “House calls can provide a unique perspective on a patient’s life that is not available in an office visit or during hospitalization. A house call can foster the physician-patient relationship, and enhance the physician’s understanding of the patient’s environment and support systems.” Circling back to the comment about physicians strongly influencing the choice of location for practicing medicine, many of them, metaphorically speaking, subscribe to the time-honored philosophy of, “you can lead a horse to water, but, you cannot make them drink.” The vast majority of physicians tend to be pragmatic in their work, especially those in private practice, or a small professional group. The molding of a physician’s philosophy on practicing medicine is a slow, methodical process; it starts before they enter college. The FSMB’s Journal of Medical Regulation in 2015 stated, “Across the period of time representing the continuum of medical education, from baccalaureate to graduate medical education, it typically takes more than nine years after entering college to successfully become a licensed physician in the United States.” During their decade of schooling, the educational institutions they attend are largely responsible for the medical practice philosophy absorbed by students-turned-physicians. The philosophical molding cannot be overstated. Research uncovered several instances of medical school deans stating on-the-record their professional lack of regard for home-based medical care. To create an industry paradigm shift that supports physician house calls, it needs to start during primary medical training at the universities. But, if a school’s dean does not subscribe to the house calls business model, how likely is it that his/her school is going to adopt it as part of the curriculum?
In a June 2014 article from DPCJ, entitled, “Trend: The house call makes a comeback,” it featured Dr. Michael Farzam, who converted exclusively to physician house calls in 2001. The primary focus of the article is to demonstrate to the reader some of the fundamental methods a physician needs to adopt in order to make physician house calls a workable business model. One of the primary advantages Farzam has is: He is his own boss. Whether a particular facet of his physician house calls practice works or not, is entirely on him. A key factor in his success is he embraced the electronic age early in his practice. The DPCJ article states, in part, “…he speaks with patients on the phone before making the trek in LA traffic to their home.” Taking advantage of technology puts Farzam ahead of the power curve for adopting a cell phone-based mobile application to quickly connect patients and physicians on a near real-time basis.
But, what about physicians who currently do not make physician house calls; can anyone simply make the leap? In June 2015, the AAFP published some key information that is essential to anyone interested in moving into the physician house calls industry; this includes the technology providers of the mobile application, and the physicians. For the most part, physicians are not positioned to simply make the switch to doing house calls as their new business model, regardless of utilizing a mobile phone application. The AAFP information indicates that 83% of American physicians are not the sole owner of their medical practice. Of the 83%, ¾ of those physicians have no ownership stake at all. The crux of the situation is: Even if a physician wants to convert to the house calls business model, regardless of using a mobile phone application for booking business or not, he/she is not the sole decision maker, if at all. So, any business plan to capitalize on the physician house calls resurgence has to include how to sway multi-owner medical practices, or those with a CEO or managing partner who makes the heavy business decisions.

CALCULATING CALIFORNIA’S CURRENT PHYSICIAN HOUSE CALLS POPULATION

It would be nice if one or more of the previously noted institutions had already undertaken to determine California’s market penetration for physician house calls; unfortunately, they have not. The net result is: It requires pulling together statistics from multiple sources, and making some assumptions. A testament to how small the market penetration is, is looking at AAHCM’s provider directory. Considering that AAHCM is the main standard bearer for the physician house calls industry, it would make sense to check their database of member/providers. Even if we make the assumption that the vast majority of the American population in any profession is not keen on voluntarily joining anything, then transfer that caveat to temper membership expectations of the AAHCM, and that California has the highest population of licensed physicians in the country (which is 55% greater than 2nd place New York, and nearly double the physician headcount of 3rd place Texas), anyone would be shocked to find AAHCM lists only 22 member/providers in California! By anyone’s measure, there’s a lot of opportunity for business in California.
When evaluating the physician specialties most likely to make physician house calls, it would be general/family practitioners, and internal medicine specialists; these were used in the following calculations. The MBC’s 2014-2015 annual report says there are 10,115 licensed physicians in the state practicing general/family medicine. The report lists 28,415 physicians practicing internal medicine. Again, this is out of a total California-licensed physician population of 132,370.
AAFP’s June 2015 published data indicates that nearly 84% of the physicians surveyed, work in an office or standalone clinic. The bulk of the remaining 16% work in hospitals, urgent care facilities, and residential institutions. The balance of the population, 2.6%, do not see their patients in any of these settings. If you combine together the general/family practitioners and internal medicine specialists, you derive the results below:

2.6% x (10,115 + 28,415) = ~ 1,002 licensed physicians practicing medicine outside of any sort of “brick n’ mortar” healthcare location. This is the broadest population possible of physicians practicing medicine in a home-based setting in California.

Let’s compare some findings from the new start-up physician house calls company in Southern California, “Heal, Inc,” whose practice is currently centered in Los Angeles County and Orange County. Heal uses the mobile application for connecting patients to their cadre of physicians. MBC data indicates that 29% of California physicians practice general/family or internal medicine. MBC states there are 38,974 physicians of all specialties practicing in the two counties. If we apply the 29% state population of GPs and internists to the two-county total physician population of 38,974, it equals 11,344 GP/internists in L.A. and Orange County. Referring back to AAFP’s 2.6% of physicians not practicing in a traditional healthcare setting, the following calculation results:

11,344 x 2.6% = 295 GP/internists not practicing in any traditional setting. Compare the headcount of 295 in L.A. and Orange County to Heal’s current practice cadre of 18 physicians, and we find a lot of room for growth in adopting the cell phone mobile physician house calls model. Even if Heal’s cadre were quadrupled to account for unknown mobile application physician/competitors, it would still be less than a 25% market penetration. There’s plenty of room for growth in just a portion of this large metropolitan area!

CONCLUDING COMMENTS

The U.S. marketplace, in general, and California, in specific, has a huge potential for expansion of the physician house calls industry. Likewise, there is even greater opportunity for incorporating a cell phone-based mobile application for connecting patients with healthcare providers specializing in home-based care. Quick action, however, is paramount in developing a viable business plan for both physician house calls practice adoption, and for the mobile application to connect market participants (i.e.; patients and physicians). Heal, Inc., for example, is expanding to 15 new markets in the next year.

Steve Miller, © Copyright 2016

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National Security

Presidential Findings and Their Impact on U.S. National Security

reagan-presidential-finding-nicaragua_dec1981Presidential Finding signed by President Reagan to authorize the CIA to conduct covert operations in Central America to aid the Contra rebels in their fight against the Communist-backed Sandinista government in Nicaraqua.

During the Vietnam War nearly every kind of intelligence operation you can think of was undertaken by the U.S. Intelligence Community.  The four most heavily engaged agencies, starting with the most utilized first, were: the Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, and the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.  As the War dragged on, with public, Congressional, and Presidential frustration mounting, increased pressure was applied on intelligence activities, especially the CIA, to help turn the War in a more positive direction.

Thomas Ahern, a CIA intelligence officer, who started his career in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam War, wrote an excellent book, “Vietnam Declassified,” about the CIA and the many types of intelligence operations undertaken in Vietnam.  He cites an exasperating meeting about a problem with a certain pacification program led by the CIA, during which someone tossed out a new idea. William Colby (future CIA director), who was the CIA’s Saigon station chief at the time, replied that he was willing to try anything—if it would work.  The mounting, across-the-board frustration, left the CIA and its cohort agencies, grasping at straws.

William Colby became the new Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) in September 1973, just a month after American combat activity ceased in Southeast Asia.  Colby’s tenure would be a brief 2 ½ years.  Before the year was over, allegations began to surface in the press about questionable intelligence activities during the War.  Press allegations continued throughout 1974, and murmurings started-up in Congress about possible Intelligence Community improprieties.   By time Colby left office he would arguably hold the distinction of testifying before Congress more than any other DCI.  By January 1975 both the Senate, and House of Representatives, were conducting hearings about the impropriety allegations.  Senator Frank Church chaired one committee, and Congressman Otis Pike chaired a similar investigation committee in the House.

All of this external attention on the Intelligence Community resulted in passage of several new laws to tighten-up accountability and oversight of certain critical, intelligence operations.  For the most part, the type of operations that were closely looked at, and caused the most angst with Congress, were those in which the importance to U.S. National Security was ill-defined; in essence, justifying a direct benefit to the Unites States was a stretch, at best.

U.S. Foreign Policy has a range of options available to the President in order to achieve his goals.  The low end of the scale espouses the use of diplomacy to achieve American goals overseas.  At the opposite end of the spectrum from diplomacy is military intervention.  Starting in the post-World War II era, and continuing to this day, foreign relations between countries have become so complex that often times using pure diplomacy is ineffective; but, military intervention is too much.  The gray area between State Department diplomacy, and Defense Department military operations, is often the domain of the CIA using Covert Action to achieve American foreign policy goals.  It is this genre of intelligence operations that garnered such a strong backlash from Congress and the public after Vietnam.

Regardless the type of intelligence operation being mounted, they all have an appropriate level of Operational Security – “OPSEC.”  OPSEC is usually manifested in three categories:

Clandestine operation:  An operation sponsored or conducted by  a U.S. government department or agency in such a way as to assure secrecy or concealment.  Clandestine operations are the usual means of OPSEC for espionage and/or intelligence collection, which is the “bread n’ butter” spying conducted by the CIA’s National Clandestine Service.  The biggest reason intelligence collection is conducted with clandestine OPSEC is most adversaries, upon detecting espionage activity, move quickly to render useless anything that was purloined.  For example, clandestinely photographing an enemy’s communication code books.  If the collection activity is discovered, the enemy will stop using the compromised codes, and the photographed code book has no further value.  Being undetected is paramount in clandestine operation.

Covert operation: An operation of the United States Government that is planned and executed to influence political, economic, or military conditions abroad, where it is intended that the role of the United States Government will not be apparent or acknowledged publicly (i.e.; plausible deniability).

Clandestine and Covert operation:  The operation must be undetected, and the sponsor’s identity is concealed.

By the very nature of clandestine operations, they tend to be low-key.  Any sort of violence associated with the operation tends to cause the lack of detection to be tossed right out the window.

Covert operations conducted by the CIA, for example, are less concerned about remaining undetected during the operation, or afterwards.  Of greater concern is running the operation so it cannot be traced back to the United States.  In this sense, it is a fact-of-life that covert operations tend to have more violence attached, destroying property and/or killing enemy personnel to prevent them from reporting who or what they saw.  As noted previously, when diplomacy fails, but, direct military intervention is too heavy handed, a plausibly deniable covert operation often becomes the tool-of-choice for resolving vexing problems.  Up until Colby’s DCI tour, and the Church & Pike Committees, the CIA regularly conducted operations using all three OPSEC categories.  Covert operations bears the majority of public and Congressional opposition.  This led Congress to add language in Title 50 U.S. Code, requiring a documented Presidential Finding for covert operations.

Prior to the law being changed to require a Presidential Finding, an extremely sensitive covert operation was usually briefed to the President for his buy-in.  The law was moot, however, on any formal requirement to seek the President’s buy-in, nor was there a requirement to document the Presidential Briefing in writing, nor to obtain an actual signature by the President, approving the covert action.  Aside from the President’s buy-in, the law was also silent about informing key members of Congress about an impending covert action.

Once the law took effect, all covert actions had to be documented in a signed Presidential Finding, and it had to contain an explanation of why it was necessary to conduct the operation, including the identifiable foreign policy objectives of the United States, and the covert action’s importance to U.S. National Security.  Lastly, the Presidential Finding must be presented to both Congressional intelligence committees.

Steve Miller, (c) Copyright 2016

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